Chances of Winning: Obama 80%, McCain 20%

Below is the latest Electoral Map from CNN. It is based on multiple polls taken in each state and is updated daily with the latest results. According to this map, there are 99 votes “up-for-grabs” — Obama needs 20 of them, whereas John McCain needs 79. Using straight math, and assuming a 50% chance that either candidate will get those votes (this does not take into consideration that votes are awarded in “clumps” based on state), Obama has a 80% chance of winning, while McCain has a 20% chance.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I will update this map and the odds every few days (I should note, this is not a prediction of the margin of victory, it is simply a prediction of who will win).

9 Responses

  1. With only 46 days left until November 4th, do you know the Top 50 Swing Voter Demographics in 2008?

    #50 – Hockey Moms
    
#49 – Godless Hollywood Liberals

    #48 – Baristas

    #47 – People with STDs

    #46 – ???

    Check out http://swingvoters.wordpress.com

  2. Three problems:

    1) Republicans historically under-poll, so McCain will most likely do better than the polls indicate.

    2) Blacks historically over-poll, so Obama will most likely do worse than the polls indicate.

    3) We haven’t had an election in a quarter of a century decided by more than 8% margin of the popular vote, and the 8% election included Ross Perot with exactly 8% of the popular vote.

  3. O, this is in no way a prediction of margin, it is simply odds on the “flip of a coin”…

  4. True, I was just trying to point out the the chart’s numbers were going to be off due to the above-mentioned “truths.”

    And now we have to consider how much as Biden hurt Obama because of his growing problem – being near to excommunication is huge – with the Catholics. They’re approximately 25% of America’s registered voters apparently.

  5. God. I don’t think I can survive the next 46 days. I’m ready to excommunicate some family members.

  6. I’ve gotta admit, before reading I glanced at the map and seen all the red states that McCain had in “locked” in. It got a terrifying chill down my spine.
    Upon reading however I was quite ecstatic. Thank Crom for electoral votes.

  7. Weird that DE is in blue. I know whole families who believe that to vote Democratic is to vote for the “killing of unborn children”. God that makes me sick. Do you realize that there are those who will vote for their first presidential election and will vote solely on what they’ve heard around the dinner table and misrepresented ideals? Do you realize that there are those who will cast a vote for nothing more than their stance on Pro-Life/Choice because they don’t know anything else and are too sheep to find out?

    I’m going to crawl into a hole…

  8. Megan,

    There are whole hosts of people in all states and of all age groups who will cast a vote for nothing more than their stance on Pro-Life/Choice because nothing else is of more importance to them.

    It’s not necessarily a matter of ignorance. It’s often a matter of priorities.

  9. hey ty, et al.

    stop printing this! you know all your hipster readers in the 18-24 yr old bracket are notorious for not making it to the voting booth on election day. don’t give them a reason to think it’s in the bag😉

    truly. i jest. i know your readers are smarter than that.

    and megan, i’m right there with you, sister. i’m ready to find that hole. i’m breaking out in hives, especially now that the smear and slaughter attack has officially begun [although they’ve been going on the last 2 years on fox noise and right-wing radio]. i’m continually shocked by the chasm between my brain and approx 50% of my fellow american’s brains.

    but on a nicer note, congratulations, roger, on your new gig!

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